21+ | Gamble responsibly | 1-800-GAMBLER · For information/entertainment only — a tracked thought experiment, not betting advice. No affiliation with any sportsbook.
RULES
Start with $10. Each step is ONE model pick priced between -200 and +150, where the model gives the pick at least 60% and its edge over the book price is more than 5% (model chance × decimal odds − 1). If nothing qualifies, the ladder waits. A win rolls the whole payout into the next pick, which must start after the previous game is final. Three straight wins completes the ladder (it pays the full rolled-up amount), then a new ladder starts at $10. Any loss ends the ladder and restarts at $10. Each step is the highest-confidence eligible pick on the next game day, locked before game time and never edited.
Switched from the $10 → $1,000 version on Oct 4, 2026. Ladder #1’s step 1 (SEA, locked under the old rules) counts as step 1 of the first 3-step ladder. The 60% / +150 / 5% settings were chosen on the 2024-25 backtest only.
Sources: Linecast Hockey, Football and Baseball picks, with each book’s moneyline (best FanDuel/DraftKings price; Novig if neither). Baseball uses its calibrated win probability (learned from graded picks), not the raw confidence score. Baseball isn’t in the backtest below (no free historical MLB odds).
Loading…